As French troop reinforcements pour into Mali, there is concern in Western capitals that the engagement in this vast desert country could be more difficult and more protracted than many imagine.
At present the French have deployed 1,400 troops. France’s defence minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian, told journalists: “There was combat yesterday, on the ground and from the air. There was more overnight and it is continuing at this moment.”
West Africa joins the fight
Their troops have the backing of the United Nations, as well as the West African regional grouping, ECOWAS. Soldiers from the region are – after considerable delay – finally being deployed. Some 2,000 are promised by Chad and the first of Nigeria’s contingent of 900 troops are expected to arrive on Thursday.
When they can be readied, 3,300 West African troops should join the French in bolstering the poorly motivated, poorly led Malian army in their fight against the rebels. A range of European countries, Britain among them, have promised logistical support and training.
This appears to provide the French with the overwhelming force needed to take on the Islamists rebels, who now control Northern Mali. But some in the diplomatic community worry that this may prove illusory.
The three rebel movements, Ansar Dine, Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (Mujao) and al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (Aqim) are tough, mobile and well-versed in desert warfare.
They have also considerable resources at their disposal. Between them they are estimated to have extracted €40m over the last three years from a series of kidnappings. Tobacco smuggling has bolstered their funds. This has provided them with the funds to purchase weapons from international suppliers.
The arms dealers
It is not clear which source they turned to, but the usual channels are suspected. Former Eastern block countries head this list. These include Ukraine and Belarus.
Vladimir Peftiev, who previously headed the Beltech Holding, a group of Belarusian arms producers and traders, last year had his assets frozen in Europe and was barred from entry. Iran, recently named as an exporter of ammunition to Africa, could be another source.
Military analysts are concerned about the downing of a French helicopter in Mali. The French military have so far refused to explain how it was destroyed, but there are suspicions that it was hit by a surface-to-air missile. If this is true, then the rebels pose a threat to French air-superiority.
But perhaps the most worrying element of the rebel strategy is their ability to blend into the local population.
There are suggestions that the Islamists have begun to move families out of their homes in areas they control, so that they can assume the guise of local civilians, if the towns and villages are overrun.
Islamist fighters are deploying child soldiers and using the population as a shield against the offensive, a Malian army source told Agence France Presse.
These people (the Islamists) have two strategies: using the population as a shield and child soldiers as fighters,” the military leader said on condition of anonymity.
The vast wastes of the Sahara and the mobility of the fighters will make the rebels a tough enemy to dislodge. France, and its Western and West African backers, may have to prepare themselves for a long, difficult conflict.